...com

Following are some key differences between the forecasts from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office and the White House Office of Management and Budget.

The OMB, which has been criticized for being too rosy in its forecasts, based its estimates on data through early June and noted that the crisis was more severe than was known at the time of its earlier forecasts. CBO's forecasts include data through July but do not take into account potential impacts of policy changes the Obama White House is seeking, such as healthcare and tax changes.

BUDGET DEFICIT:

The White House offered a slightly gloomier forecast for federal red ink, even after it withdrew a tentative $250 billion place-holder for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) which was aimed at bolstering financial institutions and U.S. automakers. Meanwhile, CBO said that it expected outlays for TARP to be $203 billion less than originally thought for this fiscal year.

As a result, both OMB and the CBO projected that the fiscal 2009 federal deficit would be just shy of $1.6 trillion, still a record by far over previous years of government shortfalls.

For fiscal 2010, which begins on October 1, the White House forecast a $1.5 trillion deficit which would slowly fall to as low as $739 billion in 2015 before it begins rising again. In comparison, the CBO forecast the deficit would be $1.38 trillion in 2010 before dropping to as low as $538 billion in 2013 before climbing again.

The two reports differed more significantly when predicting deficits through 2019 due to their different accounting methods. If the White House had used CBO scoring methods, its $9 trillion projection would actually come out to $6.3 trillion, the congressional budget experts said.

Conversely, it seems safe to assume that the CBO's 10-year forecast of $7.1 trillion would come out much higher if it used the White House's assumptions about the economy and congressional spending.

ECONOMIC GROWTH:

After hefty criticism that the White House was offering unrealistic economic forecasts, OMB lowered its economic projections for gross domestic product to show it contracting 2.8 percent in calendar 2009 before growing again by 2 percent in 2010 and 3.8 percent in 2011.

"Over the winter and spring, the incoming information indicated that the economic contraction was even more severe than had been predicted by both administration and outside forecasters," OMB said.

CBO forecast that the U.S. economy will contract 2.5 percent in 2009 before growing 1.7 percent in 2010 and 3.5 percent in 2011. "Although economic conditions appear to be improving, CBO's forecast envisions a relatively slow and tentative recovery from the recession," the agency said.

UNEMPLOYMENT:

The White House estimated that unemployment will average 9.3 percent in 2009 and will climb to an average of 9.8 percent next year, but will crest above 10 percent during some months. Administration officials earlier this year said that unemployment would probably not go above 8 percent. OMB projected that unemployment would fall back to an average of 8.6 percent in 2011.

"With a return to stronger growth in 2011, the unemployment rate is projected to fall more rapidly in that year," it said.

Meanwhile, congressional budget experts projected that unemployment would average 9.3 percent this year and could hit 10.4 percent in the middle of 2010 but average 10.2 percent for the year. In 2011, CBO said unemployment would average 9.1 percent and fall to 8.5 percent by the end of 2011.

"In the very near term, CBO's forecast reflects the pattern of recent recessions. CBO anticipates at least several more months of falling employment."

CAVEAT:

Congressional budget experts included a notable caution about its forecasts in light of the recession -- the worst since the Great Depression. "The uncertainty surrounding the current forecast of economic activity is greater than usual," CBO said, citing three reasons. They included the unprecedented financial turmoil, government interventions to pull the country out of the recession and the massive losses households have experienced, both in home and equity holdings.

(Reporting by Jeremy Pelofsky and Andy Sullivan, editing by Vicki Allen